While attending several conferences
and seminars on trading, I have had the opportunity to learn
from many of the world's foremost experts on trading
psychology. Much of what I have heard and read seems to fit
quite nicely with my own years of trading experience. Often examples cited by the speaker
or author would call to mind past trading practices and
attitudes that I have had to modify, to conquer, to solidify
so as to enable me to operate in a long term profitable
mode. The short term is but a small part
of a much larger long term picture. That is to say that one
trade is just one trade. Win or lose, you must move on to
the next trading situation. You cannot afford the luxury of
omnipotence nor the gloom of despondence. Each trader in his own way must
develop the ability to keep on going. You may have many
failing trades and still win the long term pursuit of
trading profits. But you have to keep going. Each trader must develop a personal
risk management program. Part of this risk management
approach must include a definitive method of removing
trading profits from the market. Deployment of these profits
are best directed to a lower risk category of investment. Each trader must learn to deal with
uncertainty. Most trading situations are neither black nor
white but a shade of gray. Trading is an uncertain art form.
If you wait for certainty, it is to late. The profit
opportunity is gone. Each trader must develop the ability
to focus. A one market approach may be the answer for some
traders while a single trading approach to several markets
may prove to be successful for other traders. The successful trader will:
Identify a signal or a market
opportunity.
-
React decisively.
-
Feel good - whether he wins or
loses.
-
Demonstrate self confidence.
-
Exercise his independence.
Barriers To Successful TradingRefusing to take a loss: This is one
of the more prominent reasons for failure in the trading
game. It usually starts with the lack of a defined exit
point when a trade is executed. Ask yourself: "Where and
when do I get out if I am wrong?. Why are you trading? Do you fully
understand what your goals are as a trader? Trading is
some-what like golf. There are a vast number of golfers that
enjoy the activity but they will never make a living at it.
They incur the cost of club memberships, cart rentals,
equipment, reading literature, private and group instruction
and so on. I would venture to say that most of these golfers
have no intention of making money playing the game and they
know that. They know why they participate and for the few
that go on to make a living at the game, they work their
"tails" off day after day. They are willing to pay the price
of success. What about traders? It is common
belief that 85% to 90% of traders lose money in any given
year. All traders incur cost such as equipment purchase or
rental, subscriptions to trade journals and newspapers,
private and group instruction and so on. Unlike the golfer,
most traders have the intention of making money through
their trading activities although they do not know quite how
this is going to come about. They do not work their "tails"
off day after day. They are looking for something easy.
Often they lack a clear understanding of their motivation
for trading.
Trading Types:
The suicidal trading type:
is bent on committing financial extinction by jumping in
front of moving trains. They insist on selling into run away
markets only to see the market move higher. At this point,
(they reason) it has to be a better sell than the first
position. After all, they are selling at a higher price and
of course they love to buy a market that is falling "out of
bed". And the next day when prices are even lower, wow,
another bargain. These guys always think that they see the
light at the end of the tunnel. The only problem is this
light is on the front end of a locomotive. Many of these
suicidal types love to point out that they have (had) a
$100,000 trading account. They know a bargain when they see
one. After all they made their money snapping up bargains in
their other life.
The euphoric trading type:
has no plan of withdrawing profits from the trading account.
A hot streak comes along and each successive trade is larger
than the first as all profits are plowed right back into the
market until the loss comes while our euphoric trader is up
to his eyeballs in contracts. Not only does he give back all
of the profits, often the account is wiped out and possibly
more. Your Trading Profile: "Know Thyself"
Why are you trading? What are your objectives as a trader?
What is your strength? What is your weakness? Are you
persistent? Do you have courage? If you do not have a
satisfactory response for any of the previous questions, now
is the time to work on this. There is no one correct answer
to any of these questions. Only your answers. However, if
you are kidding yourself, you will not fool the market. "Know Your Market" All markets
have a personality of their own. There are important reports
that can and will cause unusual volatility and periods of
illiquidity. The more you know about the market you are
trading, the greater your trading advantage.
Identify And Develop Your Trading
Style Are You A Mechanical Style Trader?
Do you have study time, desire, persistence and emotional
control? If you lack any of these characteristics, then
perhaps you should consider a mechanical approach to
trading. The successful mechanical trader
will:
Accept the fact that a mechanical
trading method is a compromise between the goal of
eliminating the poorest trades and retaining the best
trades. This fact will insure that at times a good trade
will not be followed and at times a poor trade will be
followed.
-
Accept the fact that a mechanical
trading method can only succeed if the method is
consistently followed.
Are You An Intuitive Style Trader?
Do you have study time, desire, persistence and emotional
control? If you have all of these characteristics, then
develop your trading style by emphasizing the "Art of
Trading" The successful intuitive trader
will:
Trade what she/he sees - not what
she/he thinks.
-
Be patient, willingly to wait for
the good trading opportunity and then pull the trigger.
-
Forego the marginal trades.
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Will not trade just for
excitement.
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Do the daily homework necessary
to hone their trading skills.
Traits Of A Successful Trader Courage... "The credit belongs to the man who
is actually in the arena, who strives valiantly; who knows
the great enthusiasms, the great devotions and spends
him-self in a worthy cause; who at best, knows the triumph
of high achievement; and who, at the worst, if he fails, at
least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall
never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither
victory nor defeat." -Theodore Roosevelt
Persistence... "Nothing in the world can take the
place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more
common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not;
un-rewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not;
the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and
determination alone are omnipotent." -Calvin Coolidge.The above quotes strike me as being
appropriate for all of us engaged in the endless quest of
trading profits. I make it a point to review these
statements on a regular basis as I am well aware of the fact
that I am only as good or bad as my last trade. I accept the fact that I will never
have it "made" as a trader. Each and every day is a new
trading situation and I must be prepared with my trading
plan. I must Plan My Trade And Trade My Plan.
In My Opinion Trading Is An Art, Not A Science and
mechanical trading methods and indicators are best used as
just another tool in the practice of THE ART OF TRADING. Diversification achieved by trading
a variety of markets is a mistake for most individual
traders. Every market has its own characteristics and a
singular trading plan will not work equally as well in all
markets. You may well improve your trading success by
learning one market with the goal of becoming the best
possible student of this selected market. You may find that
trading just one side of this market the key to your
success.
Learn To Survive There are as many methods of trading
as there are traders. Every trader is different and no one
trading approach is right for all traders. Find the methods
that work for you and then concentrate on repeating these
techniques.
Take Time Out Every trade consumes emotional
energy and a tired trader is a handicapped trader. Take a
break - go on a vacation. Get away from the markets - spend
some time with family and friends. Trading from a position
of emotional strength is as important as trading from a
position of financial strength.
The First Calculation Is Risk The first question concerning any
trade concerns risk or the amount you are willing to lose.
If the protective stop has to be placed where the loss
exceeds your comfort level - either move the stop closer or
DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE.
Remove Part Of Your Trading
Profits ...from your account. The first
objective is to remove enough profits from the trading
account to cover the initial starting amount. This can be
achieved by removing 50% of trading profits above a set
amount. If you start with $8,000, remove 50% of any profits
when the account moves above the $10,000 level. When you
have removed $8,000 from the account, you will then be
trading on money gained from the market. Once your account
reaches the $30,000 level remove all profits above the
$30,000 level. Continue to trade within these guidelines
until you feel very secure in the number of contracts you
are trading. Eventually you may feel secure enough to slowly
increase the account size.
Trading "Size" Is More Than Just
Adding Contracts The pressure from adding more
contracts increases geometrically as the number of contracts
increases arithmetically. Whatever number of contracts you
are trading successfully, stay with that number. Otherwise,
you will find yourself taking a loss on 10 contracts and
then you decide to cut back and trade only 3 contracts on
the next signal which turns out to be a winner and the end
result is a profit that does not equal the loss on the
previous trade of 10 contracts. Find Your Trading Comfort Level And
Stay With It For A Long, Long, Time. When You Feel That You
Are A Successful Trader, An Aggressive Use Of Your Account
For Trading The Full Size Bond Contract Would Be As
Follows: Account Size: $5,000 Trade 1
Contract (or only options) Account Size: $14,000 Trade 2
Contracts Account Size: $20,000 Trade 3
Contracts Account Size: $25,000 Trade 4
Contracts Account Size: $30,000 Trade 5
Contracts When your account reaches the
$25,000 level, have your broker purchase a $10,000 T-Bill
which will then be used for initial margin requirements.
This way, you are earning interest on it as well as using it
for margin.
A Solid Financial Foundation
Trading is a highly speculative
business and one never knows when a trading "accident" is
about to happen. If you trade, sooner or later you will
"wipe out" your account. If fact, you may wipe out your
account a number of times. You must plan for this and more
importantly, you must have a plan for recovery. All traders
lose money. It is the trader that has the ability to recover
and to move on to a profitable position that will succeed in
the long run. The average investor that uses
trading as a part of his portfolio should limit trading
activities to no more than 10% of his total investment
funds. For each year of the traders age, 1% of his
investment funds should be placed in U.S. Government Notes
and Bonds. This is accomplished by using a TREASURY DIRECT
ACCOUNT. The remaining investment funds should be allocated
to a systematic program of investing in common stock growth
funds. This can be accomplished through the use of no-load
mutual funds spread over such areas as International Funds,
Index Funds and small cap stock funds. A dollar cost average
approach is the best way to handle the fund investments. Any portion of your portfolio that
involves trading falls within the 10% limit of your total
investment funds. This includes futures trading, stock
trading and mutual fund timing.
Before Becoming A Full Time
Trader, Get completely out of debt. Pay off the house mortgage and the
car loan. Carry no balances on your charge cards. Only
charge what you can pay off in full each and every month.
Accumulate a significant reserve of cash in-vested in three
or six month Treasury Bills. This can be done through your
TREASURY DIRECT ACCOUNT. As soon as you are trading full
time, set up Keogh and Money Purchase retirement plans and
contribute the maxi-mum amount each year.
The Individual Trading Plan
Some traders operate best from one
side of the market. If this is your situation, then build
your trading plan around your strength. If you trade best
from the long side, trade only the buy signals. If the short
side is your strong suit, then trade only the sell signals. Many traders will successfully
operate from either side. Their trading plan will follow
both valid buy and sell signals as they are as comfortable
being short as being long. Trading size is directly related to
our ability to withstand a loss. Once you exceed your
comfort level by increasing your trading size, it will be
difficult for you to carry out your trading plan. Find your
trading toleration and then stick to it. A range of contract
size such as 1 to 5 contracts may prove to be an acceptable
level of trading for some individuals while being
unacceptable to other traders. It is a good practice to
trade a different number of contracts for different trading
situations. The number of contracts associated
with any particular entry signal is decided upon by a
variety of considerations. The first entry signal of a new
direction in the market usually will reach its profit
objective with the least amount of adverse price movement
whereas a later entry signal in the same direction may
encounter difficulty in reaching its profit objective. When
a new direction begins, put your full position on with the
first signal. Later signals in the same direction should be
traded with a smaller number of contracts.
Your Trading Plan The implementation of your trading
plan will be evaluated by the market place and your grades
will be posted trade by trade, month by month, year by year.
Consistent failing grades should alert you to either a need
to change your plan or how you are carrying out your plan.
Do you give up because you have failing grades? Of course
not. It takes years of trading experience to become a good
trader. While I cannot guarantee success for everyone,
relatively few traders are successful early on. If they are,
it usually is a fluke and it is but a short time and they
give back most of their profits and then some to the market
place. Patience, Courage and Persistence
are all required ingredients in the recipe of successful
trading.What Is Your Position Are you
long, having bought with the idea that prices are headed
higher, or are you short, having sold because you feel
prices are surely headed lower? How about flat? Is there
anyone on the sidelines awaiting the next entry signal? As a
position, being flat is as important as being long or being
short. Many traders, to the detriment of their trading
health, have the mistaken idea that a sideline position is
tantamount to not participating. They insist on being in the
market at all times worried that they may miss a trading
opportunity.
Being Flat Is A Position And You
Must Learn To Accept The Importance Of Being On The
Sidelines Awaiting A Proper Entry Signal. How To Handle The Numerous Chart
Trading Signals The daily, weekly and monthly bar charts
serve as a road map and are used to gain insight as to the
next probable move for the market. You will be instructed in
the activity of observing and recording numerous entry
signals from the Daily chart of the bond futures contract.
You must learn to mesh the various signals into a workable
trading plan. This is an individual process and will not
necessarily be the same for all traders. Basic to all
trading plans, you will assume one of the three following
positions:
1. You are long because a valid
buy signal has been initiated and you will re-main long
until the profit objective has been reached, or the
protective stop was elected, or a sell signal was
initiated.
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You are short because a valid
sell signal has been initiated and you will re-main short
until the profit objective has been reached, or the
protective stop was elected, or a buy signal was
initiated.
-
You are flat because no new valid
entry signal is present. You will stay flat until a valid
entry signal appears.
A Trade Is A Trade Is A Trade! Every trade has an entry point, a
profit objective and a PROTECTIVE STOP. If it does not work,
the stop takes you out of the trade and you move on to the
next trading signal. Being wrong with a trading signal is
all part of the business. Being wrong and not using your
protective stop is part of GOING OUT OF THE TRADING
BUSINESS. A trading plan provides for the
number of contracts to risk on each entry signal. It is part
of a well thought out process that takes into consideration
the amount of risk capital available, the type of trade
signal to be entered and the amount of risk capital allotted
to this particular entry signal. IT WILL ALMOST ALWAYS END
UP WITH THE TRADE SIGNALS THAT LOOK LIKE SURE WINNERS
TURNING OUT TO BE LOSERS WHILE THE HARD TO TAKE SIGNALS TURN
OUT TO BE THE WINNERS!
Find your comfort zone for risk and
stay within this zone. If a signal looks like a sure winner,
a lay-up, a money in the bank type trade - Stay Within The
Comfort Zone. Do Not Bet The House On The Trade!